The tide
Watching the water
The tide over the night
Where the count stands
Races with votes counted
Each mark is a race: how much of the expected vote is in (left to right) and the forecast margin with its 80% range (up for Democrats, down for Republicans). On the left, counts are early and mostly one kind of ballot.
Senate
Senate races
Every race, from safest Democratic to safest Republican
Map
Races
House
Competitive House races
The 89 rated races by forecast margin
Every rated race, from safest Democratic to safest Republican
Races
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio posts absentee ballots first, and they usually lean Democratic; Election Day precincts follow and shift the count toward Republicans until about 11 p.m.
Over the night
Chance of Democratic control
SenateHousepoll closings
What the results say so far
How to read this
- Chance of control comes from 20,000 simulated outcomes that combine pre-election polls and ratings with the votes counted so far. 76% means Democrats win control in about 76 of 100 simulations.
- Forecast margin bars show the most likely final margin (dot) and the range it falls in 80% of the time. The hollow mark is the margin of the votes counted so far.
- Early counts mislead. States count mail, early and Election Day votes in different orders. The model corrects for each state's counting order, so the forecast can disagree with the current count.
- Tipping point: line races up from most to least Democratic; the race that would give Democrats their majority is the one most likely to decide control.
- Published models and markets are shown for comparison only. They are not inputs.